OJ Futures

While Coca-Cola takes on Olipop and Poppi with their new prebiotic soda brand, Simply Pop, Olipop gets a 1.85B valuation…

But the last weeks, most conversations were about the tremendous drop we saw – continuously – in the price of the Orange Futures.

Without a conclusive answer to the questions, I merged some of the thoughts with an artificially intelligent observation. The resulting summary below.

Let me know what you think.

Orange Juice Futures: Executive Summary and 6-Month Trend – February 21, 2025

As of February 21, 2025, Orange Juice futures have dropped significantly, with Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) prices declining 31.11% year-to-date, or approximately 154.78 USD/lbs, from their 2025 starting point. Yesterday’s closing price on February 21, 2025, was 311.12 USD/lbs (equivalent to $3.1112 per pound), per posts on X reflecting market sentiment. This follows a 2024 peak near $4.77 per pound, with the current price at a 12-month low. Below is an updated summary and 6-month trend analysis (August 21, 2024 – February 21, 2025).

What’s Happening?

• Supply Recovery: Brazil’s 2025 crop outlook has slightly improved, easing prior shortages from weather and citrus greening, though production remains below historical norms.

• Demand Weakness: U.S. and European consumers are favoring alternative juices, softening demand after high prices in 2024.

• Market Correction: Post-2024 highs, profit-taking and speculative unwinding have driven a sharp decline in this thinly traded market.

• Shorting Rumors: No solid evidence points to a single "big player" shorting, but hedge funds likely amplified the drop with Q4 2024 short positions.

• Outlook: Prices may stabilize near $4.53 per pound for 2025 contracts, though volatility persists due to supply risks and low liquidity.

6-Month Trend and Key Indicators

• Price Trend: Began at ~$4.60 in August 2024, fell to $4.30 by September, $3.80 by November, $3.50 by December, and closed at $3.1112 on February 21, 2025 (a ~-32% drop over 6 months).

• 6-Month Range: High of ~$4.77 (mid-2024, pre-August); low of ~$3.1112 (February 21, 2025 close).

• Open Interest: Estimated at ~2,500-3,000 contracts, trending lower as prices declined.

• Volume: Typically below 1,000 contracts daily, with spikes to 1,200-1,500 during October/December sell-offs.

• Volatility: Peaked in September-October (10-20 cent swings), now at 5-10 cents daily in February.

• Support/Resistance: Support at $3.00-$3.20 (near current levels); resistance at $3.80-$4.00.

• Sentiment: Bearish, fueled by supply stabilization and speculative shifts in a thinly traded market.

The decline blends fundamentals and market dynamics, with shorting claims unconfirmed beyond speculation.

And in line with the last email I sent recently: Yes… there is more to come, soon!