2023-2024 Orange Crop Forecast Update Brazil

A quick update with the latest Orange crop update from Brazil:

The Brazilian orange industry's third forecast for the 2023/24 crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt remains steady at 307.22 million boxes, despite a slight reduction of 0.7% from the initial forecast. Approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected from the Triângulo Mineiro region​​.

Influencing Factors & Current Situation:

• Harvest Completion: Nearly complete, with a faster pace than previous years, helping to mitigate fruit loss due to premature dropping.

• Weather Impact: Less rainfall and higher temperatures continued the adverse trends from the latter half of the previous year, leading to smaller-sized fruits for mid-season and late varieties.

• Rainfall Deficit: There was a significant 30% reduction in average accumulated precipitation across most regions, with only Votuporanga showing a slight increase (+0.1%) in rainfall compared to the historical average​​.

• Fruit Size and Drop Rate: Slight variations were noted, but with minimal impact on overall numbers. The average fruit size is now slightly lower than in previous years​​.

• Drop Rate: The average drop rate stands at 19.0%, with early varieties showing lower rates compared to Valencia and Natal varieties​​.

This overview and data table highlight the resilience of the Brazilian orange industry amid climatic challenges, with production forecasts remaining robust. The industry's adaptability to accelerated harvest schedules and its management of fruit size and drop rates are noteworthy as they continue to navigate the variables of weather and agricultural conditions.

Big question that remains: what will the current challenges and changes mean for next year’s crop?

The full report can be found in this PDF on Fundecitrus.com.