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EU Fruit Juice Availability in Danger Zone
And 'Land Grab' Is Underway in Energy-Drink Industry, while UK’s competition watchdog investigates Carlsberg-Britvic deal.
Jan van Iperen
October 25, 2024
For Professionals in the Juice and Citrus industry
It’s not often that research is published on the Orange Juice Futures, let alone forecasting them!
And when 2 commodities (orange and apple) see way above normal pricing… it is understandable that the industry becomes concerned about the future.
In Today's newsletter:
🧃 Juice News
At the SIAL conference, a large food and beverage tradeshow, discussions centered largely on the challenges of sourcing juice for the coming year. According to one market source, some EU orange juice companies have already gone out of business due to an inability to source enough orange juice to meet customer demands.
The Expana benchmark price for Brazilian orange juice delivered to Europe is currently at $7000/MT, up by 55% y-o-y.
The Juice Summit 2024 concluded with a strong emphasis on adaptability, innovation, and sustainability as critical drivers for the future of the juice industry. Kees Cools, President of IFU, remarked, “The Juice Summit offers a great information and dialogue platform to all segments of the global juice supply chain in support of solutions for the many challenges the industry faces today.”
Bloomberg's Liana Baker helped break down the prospects for more dealmaking among energy-drink companies after Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. agreed to buy Ghost Lifestyle LLC and Ghost Beverages LLC. Bankers are also watching Siemens AG's interest in industrial-software maker Altair Engineering Inc., Baker says on "Bloomberg Open Interest."
The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has launched a merger inquiry into Carlsberg’s acquisition of soft drink company Britvic.
Carlsberg is set to acquire Britvic for £3.3bn ($4.27bn) in a deal announced in July. The Danish beer giant will take over the Hemel Hempstead-headquartered company, creating a beverage ‘powerhouse’ across beer and soft drinks in the UK.
The CMA’s role is to investigate mergers that have the potential to lead to substantial lessening of competition. It has the power to block a merger or impose remedies to address concerns if it believes a merger is likely to reduce competition in a substantial manner.
According to the approved decision, the special economic zone will exclusively focus on the production of citrus concentrates. The company operating within this zone is mandated to export 100% of its annual production and to utilize 100% locally sourced ingredients.
Noticing the void in the market for quality functional products that promotes wellness by reducing stress, with a brand image that’s joy-inspiring and clean, Gen Z/millennial-facing and customer-friendly, TRIP’s co-founders and husband/wife duo Olivia Ferdi and Daniel Khoury were ahead of the market and introduced millions of people to their first beverage experience that’s aimed at helping them navigate the stress associated with modern-day life.
🍊 Citrus News
With citrus crops gaining popularity in South Carolina, Clemson University announced that the 2024 Southeast Citrus Expo will be held Nov. 22–23 in Charleston.
The event will feature drop-in tours, a banquet and a full day of educational sessions. Zack Snipes, horticulture agent with Clemson University Cooperative Extension Service, is the event coordinator.
"Conditions in the orange market are still improving, mainly due to the global shortage of this fruit; however, we believe that prices have peaked, and we are likely to see them being replaced with other products, such as mandarins, multi-fruit combinations or concentrate-based blends, which could influence market dynamics in the coming years."
The main varieties of grapefruits in Israel are White Marsh, Red Grapefruits, such as Sunrise or also called Star Ruby, Rio Red and Redson as well as Sweetie Green grapefruits. The season started in September with Sweetie and will end around the end of May, with the red grapefruits varieties.
Wonderful Seedless Lemons are developing to be another key category for Wonderful Citrus. Supply is going to see a pretty big jump this year as the trees are maturing, new acreage is coming into production, and lemons are experiencing an on-year.
The citrus ingredients market has experienced a growth surge in recent years as demand for natural and plant-based ingredients in food and beverage products has increased. But after Hurricane Milton earlier this month, strong winds and flooding have generated up to $2.5 billion in damages to Florida’s farms, with the state’s agriculture department reporting “significant production losses” among orange crops.
🔬 Research Worth Reading
This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of various models over 5-day and 10-day trading horizons to predict the prices of orange juice futures (OJ = F). The analysis included traditional models like Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and advanced neural network models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), incorporating factors like the Commodities Index and the S&P500 Index.
Apple juice was clarified by a cold plasma surface-treated microfiltration membrane.
The process parameters of apple juice clarification were optimized by RSM.
The clarified apple juice using the surface-modified membrane had higher quality.
Citrus flavonoids possess effective antiglycating activity via different mechanisms, yet there are many challenging questions remaining to be studied in the near future such as in vivo testing and human study of citrus flavonoids for efficacy, effectiveness and adverse effects of citrus flavonoids as a functional food in managing high levels of AGEs and controlling AGE-induced chronic diseases, diabetic complications in particular.
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